When a physician is seeing a patient in front of them, from a cardiac perspective there are two major types of patients: patients with symptoms and patients without symptoms. “The vast majority of patients are patients without symptoms, they don’t come in with chest pain or shortness of breath. What I or any other provider are trying to determine is, what is the chance that this person is going to have a heart attack that is unexpected, or die of cardiovascular disease, or have a stroke — unexpectedly? There have been multiple ways over the years that we have tried to determine what that risk is. Initially, it was just with
stress testing but that has multiple failures in terms that the people without symptoms in just looking for the unexpected plaque in the patient that doesn’t have any symptoms. Then there are mathematical models based on population studies that we put factors into an app like age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol levels, tobacco use, and race. What comes out is a mathematical prediction of what this patient’s risk of having a heart attack or dying of cardiovascular disease or having a stroke is over the next ten years,” says Dr. Sullenberger.
But those models not only change over time, as do population studies, they include a lot of people who won’t actually have an event and sometimes they miss people. As Dr. Sullenberger shared, “Where we find they miss is in family history because there are certainly people who have a strong genetic predisposition to
coronary disease who have normal lipid levels, blood pressure, normal body weight, and do the right things yet are still predisposed. When these mathematical models were created there was no way to account for all the variances and nuances of family history and it didn’t really pan out as something that was included in those mathematical models.”
When your primary care physician assess your risk, they may order a
cardiac CT (computed tomography) scan which provides a high-resolution three-dimensional image of the moving heart and great vessels. A CT scan is a low-risk procedure that has been around since the 1990s. The CT scan is an x-ray procedure that combines many x-ray images with the aid of a computer to generate cross-sectional views of the body. “With this technology, we can see if there is plaque in the arteries. That plaque can then be scored using a software package that uses the number of pixels and density that gives us a score,” notes Dr. Sullenberger”
Studies since the early 2000s have been longitudinal, meaning the patient populations who have been scored have been followed for years; we now have five-year, ten-year, and now twelve-year data on calcium scoring. That data shows us that number, your score, is directionally proportional to event outcomes making it the most predictive model we have for determining whether or not a patient who has symptoms is going to wind up having a heart attack or what their risk of heart attack, stroke, or dying from cardiovascular disease is over the near future. “When I look at calcium scoring, I usually start thinking about calcium scoring people in the mid-30s, especially if they have a strong family history. Certainly people over 40. Above that age, I think everyone should at least consider or discuss with their physician if calcium scoring is appropriate for them,” adds Dr. Sullenberger. What we know from studies that have been done is that a calcium score of zero gives you the best prognostic information of any test that anyone can do for you at any time regarding your cardiac health. A calcium score of zero gives you a risk of somewhere in the range of .5% risk of heart attack over the next five years on an annual basis and there’s nothing else, no math model, no stress test, or anything else. Scores above zero are abnormal and the height of the score is indicative of increased risk. “The highest score I have ever seen asymptomatic person was in the 12,000 range, which is very unusual. The peak high score we see is in the low thousands, I usually tell people 2,000 is the highest we’ll see in a week of doing scoring.”